On Wednesday, Lin Jian, a spokesman for the PRC’s foreign ministry, announced, “The Chinese side has decided to hold off discussion with the US on a new round of consultations on arms control and non-proliferation.”

Two different forces converge here.

First, Chinese planners believe that US officials overvalue direct communication channels. Transcontinental traipsing by cabinet-level US officials encourages Chinese to leverage American fondness for contact to advance substantive Chinese objectives.

Second, anyone holding a leadership position under Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader, risks losing his or her job—that is, maintaining a highly privileged livelihood relative to most PRC residents—if he or she contradicts even an unknown position that Xi Jinping may hold now or in the future. Rather than risking offending Xi, PRC representatives prefer to avoid unscripted, direct dialogue with US counterparts.

These forces raise the importance for the United States to anticipate and prepare for addressing regular and episodic statements that PRC spokesmen make publicly.