The PRC’s precipitously declining birth rate tempts US leaders to expect correlated economic decline. As the PRC’s working age cohorts age and wither, economists expect national output to shrink.

Caution: Over China’s history, wars and related stresses have close to or more than halved the Chinese population more than a dozen times. During the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1863) alone, according to Chinese historians, China’s population fell from approximately 430 million to 230 million.

Population decline will indeed change the PRC’s governance challenges. Fewer Chinese will work, and more will need medical care. Nevertheless, US leaders should expect the PRC to see those trials as less foreboding than we may expect.